How have previous trade agreements between the US and China failed or succeeded?

Previous trade agreements between the US and China have had a mixed record of success, with significant failures, particularly concerning the "Phase One" trade deal. While intended to de-escalate trade tensions and rebalance trade, China fell short of its purchase commitments, leading to ongoing disputes.

### What was the Phase One trade deal, and what were its goals?

The Economic and Trade Agreement between the United States of America and the People's Republic of China: Phase One, went into effect on February 14, 2020. The primary goal of this deal was for China to increase its purchases of specific US goods and services by $200 billion over 2020 and 2021, building upon 2017 baseline levels. The agreement aimed to address several trade imbalances and disputes that had escalated into a trade war, marked by reciprocal tariffs.

### Did China meet its commitments under the Phase One deal?

No, China largely failed to meet its commitments under the Phase One trade deal. Reports indicate that China only purchased approximately 57% of the US exports it had agreed to buy. This failure to fulfill the purchase obligations is a key reason why the deal is widely considered a significant disappointment and, by some, a "historic failure." The unforeseen events of the COVID-19 pandemic and other economic factors are often cited as contributing to this outcome, but the fundamental shortfall in meeting targets remains.

### What were the successes, if any, of the Phase One deal?

While the purchase targets were largely unmet, the Phase One deal did achieve some limited successes. It provided a temporary de-escalation of the trade war, offering a brief respite from the escalating tariffs that had been harming both economies. The agreement also included some structural reforms related to intellectual property, technology transfer, and agricultural purchases, which were seen as positive steps, even if their full implementation and impact were debated. However, these successes were overshadowed by the failure to meet the central economic targets.

### What is the current status of US-China trade relations and tariffs?

As of the current trade talks in Switzerland, the US and China are attempting to navigate the fallout from previous agreements and ongoing trade disputes. Tariffs imposed during the trade war remain largely in place, impacting various sectors, including agriculture and energy. The economic pressures stemming from these tariffs continue to drive the dialogue, with both nations seeking to find a path toward de-escalation. The legacy of the Phase One deal and the systemic frictions between the two economic giants continue to shape their relationship.

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## References

* https://ace-usa.org/blog/research/research-foreignpolicy/failures-and-successes-of-the-phase-one-trade-agreement-with-china/
* https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2022/china-bought-none-extra-200-billion-us-exports-trumps-trade-deal
* https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3168399/us-china-trade-war-was-phase-one-trade-deal-historic-failure
* https://paradigmfutures.net/a/news/china-u-s-trade/
* https://apnews.com/article/tariff-china-united-states-timeline-b9ade8491a16f68282ad655395c602bc